Bank of England inflation forecasts
Mr Carney’s problem is that every time he makes a big forecast he seems to get it wrong.
When he came into office, the Governor brought with him a whizzy new framework for setting UK interest rates. Under “forward guidance”, he would provide clarity about borrowing costs.
He promised, based on the Bank’s forecasts, that he and the Monetary Policy Committee would start to consider lifting them only when unemployment dropped beneath 7%.
Suddenly, within a few months, the jobless rate, hitherto stuck stubbornly above that level, started to come down. Within a year, forward guidance had to be dropped, replaced with a far more vague set of promises some nicknamed “fuzzy guidance”.
Not to be deterred, Mr Carney started to drop hints about when the first rise in rates would come. In a speech at the Mansion House in 2014 he signalled that rates would go up sooner than markets expected (which meant within a year). That was wrong.
Last summer he predicted the decision to raise rates would come into sharper relief “at the turn of the year”. That was wrong. Well, unless you’re being very literal indeed and think it could also entail not raising rates.
The one prediction he has stuck to that had, up until now, looked pretty uncontroversial was that the next move in rates would be up rather than down. But, in the past few weeks even that has now come into question.